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12. The Epidemic

Leverage points
Catching it3.5Getting better1Could catch it9,990peopleIll10peopleRecovered0peopleRmore ill, more catchingBmore ill, more getting betterContacts a day10

A new illness arrives in a town of 10,000. Ill people pass it on to people they meet; after about 10 days they get better and can’t catch it again.

You set how much people mix: their contacts a day. Fewer contacts slow the illness, but cost jobs and lessons. The hospital has 600 beds.

Goal: Never have more than 600 people ill at once, while keeping contacts as high as you can (on average over the 150 days).